I don’t expect an award here, but just know your GOAT got up at 7AM on a Saturday to write this. I don’t even get up at 7AM for work. It just means more at the Kelleher camp. They always tell me “someone will always be working harder than you.” Doubt it.
Enough about me, we have a firecracker of a squad to dissect today. Love them for many reasons, but I also have my hesitations. Will Sean Miller make his first Final Four? I can certainly see a path for exactly that.
The Xavier Musketeers currently sit at 21-8 overall, with a 13-5 record in the Big East. A fast paced team that loves to run on offense, but is also vulnerable on the other side of the ball. They are a difficult team to trust, but if they are playing well leading up to the tournament that will provide me some comfort to pick them to go on a run.
It's Saturday. We all have places to go and people to see so let's get into it.
Why can Xavier make their first final four?
Unguardable. Sometimes it's more than just having guys that can shoot. There is having good offensive players, and then there is having an unguardable offense. Xavier is the master of the latter. Holy smokes can they pass the ball, set ball screens, and move without the ball. You have seen videos of Steph Curry moving without the ball and just being a menace to whoever is guarding him…That's what it's like trying to guard this offense. I imagine Sean Miller does that drill where everyone has to touch the ball before a shot goes up in practice. I HATED that drill, but maybe it actually does work. 20.3 assist per game is good enough for #1 in the nation for the Musketeers.
How to get an Assist. Well, in order to get an assist there needs to be a bucket, and Xavier gets those. Listen closely here, any team that plays fast paced can score a lot of points in a game, with these teams you have got to look at the percentages more than game totals. Xavier passes this test with flying colors, they are #3 in the country in FG%, #4 in 3P%, and #36 in 2P%. Simply put, they put the ball in the hoop at an alarming rate.
Everyone Eats. Xavier has five players that average double digits. Are you kidding me?? This is more than a solid stat. It creates space, and opportunities for everyone on the court. The more weapons you have the more the opposing team has to focus on. Trying to figure out how to defend this team is something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy (whoever sends me that video of the monstrous snakes stuck in the roof of a house).
What's holding them back?
Last team all defense. It is very frustrating to me watching a team who is so good at offense, be so bad at defense. Remember Iowa? Well this team is better than them on defense, but not by much. #77 in adjusted defense (points per 100 possessions), #136 in offensive rebounds allowed per game, #281 in points allowed per game and #328 in field goals allowed per game. This makes me sweat because the team they will be facing in the first round will most likely be a mid-major who can shoot the lights out. So what happens if Xavier has a below average day from the field and can't rely on their defense to keep them in the game? That's how a Cinderella is born.
Once this team gets hot, you better get out of the way or else your feelings WILL get hurt.
Shape up on defense and this team can go places, and that includes Houston, Texas.
My Prediction: Round of 32 Exit
Next Game: @ Providence 3/1
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