The team sitting atop of the ACC standings as of today is #27….not a great look for the ACC. But, you will find three other ACC teams in these rankings before we conclude the Super Scintillating Selections.
So, why the disrespect for the Panthers? Well, they have a quad 4 loss, a quad 3 loss, and are 3-3 in quad 2 games. Which equals a NET ranking of 51 (NET Rankings Explained). However, they do have a handful of resume building wins including UVA, UNC (twice), @ NC State, Miami, and @ Northwestern. These wins and the schedule they have remaining with 5 of the 6 teams being in the
bottom fourth of the ACC, will give them a top four finish in the ACC and essentially make them a lock for the NCAA tournament.
This is why Pitt can cut down the nets and, more realistically, why they will be watching the game from home.
Why can the Panthers win it all?
Guard Play: Jamarius Burton, Greg Elliott, and Nelly Cummings run the backcourt for this squad, and they do it damn well. All three averaging over 10 ppg, have a field goal percentage of about 40%, shoot an average of 35% behind the arc, and have a positive assist to turnover ratio. The 2022 National Champion Kansas Jayhawks had Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, and Remy Martin. The 2021 National Champion Baylor Bears had Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell. The 2019 National Champion, Virginia Cavaliers had Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and De’Andre Hunter (and Kihei Clark 🙂). My point in this? Good guard play in the tournament breeds national champions. Pittsburgh sure as hell checks that box.
Veteran Roster: Out of the six guys Jeff Capel plays on a regular basis, five of them are upperclassmen. Most of them are transfer players, but transferred from teams with experience in the NCAA tournament. A team full of transfers is worrisome for the beginning of the season, which proved to be accurate when the Panthers got off to a 1-4 start this year. As the year has gone, Pitt has developed a team that plays as one unit, averaging almost 75 ppg and allowing only 67. The veteran status of this team will only help them once the tournament comes around.
Close Game Results: This is small but definitely worth noting. Pittsburgh is 6-2 in games decided by five points or less. Which is, in large part, thanks to their free throw shooting and ability to close out games from the line. Shooting 76.4% as a team.
What is holding them back?
Turnovers- Negative turnover margins (turning the ball over more than forcing opposing teams to turn the ball over) have produced the last two national champions. Definitely a weird stat but it's true. Kansas and Baylor both had negative turnover margins throughout the season, but they made up for those turnovers with better defense and better offense than Pittsburgh has. This Panther team can't afford to turn the ball over a ton. Their offense just isn't high powered enough to make up for it.
Lack of Post Presence- Pittsburgh is going to get dominated in the post in the tournament. They don't score nor do they defend well in the paint. They do a great job of passing the ball from inside the post and getting it to their shooters, but the inability to score in the paint is going to be an issue. They are 333rd in the country (not good) in percentage of shots TAKEN in the paint. So, they know their weakness and haven't shown any signs of trying to fix that.
Jeff Capel is up for coach of the year in my opinion. Taking a 11-21 team last year to a top team in the ACC, and to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016 is certainly worthy of it. Unfortunately, I struggle to see how they can make it past the first or second round given their weaknesses.
My prediction: Round of 32 Exit
Next game: 2/14 vs. Boston College
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