I had three college basketball futures at the beginning of the season. I came up with these simply by looking into my crystal ball in November, and picking three teams that I thought could put together a great season, and do well in March. Those three teams? Arizona, Purdue, and UVA to win the national championship. They all lost in the first round as I am sure you know. UVA to a 13-seed, Arizona to a 15-seed, and Purdue wrapping it all up with a loss to a 16-seed. What. The. Hell.
My crystal ball needs to be taken to the shop and have some serious repairs to it. Going into the tournament I really was only feeling “good” about Arizona. UVA and Purdue were both playing less than confident basketball and I just had the worst feeling about them. But for ALL THREE to lose in the first round has got to be some sort of record. Sometimes you just have to laugh at yourself. Or cry, which is what I did.
With all that being said, my crystal ball is fixed and we are back in action. We have 16 teams remaining in the Men’s NCAA Tournament and only one can come out on top. Who will it be? Well, to be honest, even though we have narrowed the field down drastically since the start of the tournament, it is still wide open and anyone can take it. I've got some ideas though.
Here is the formula for picking a national champion:
A team that is getting high-level production from their top players
A team whose coach has been calm, cool, and collected/ shown they are not going to be flustered by the moment
A team whose matchups leading up to the national championship rule in their favor
A team that can do it (according to KenPom.com) I hate to be a numbers guy but this is too good to ignore. This team HAS to be in the top-40 in adjusted offense and the top-25 in adjusted defense.
Number 4 is the most important bullet point above because the KenPom website has been running for 20 years, and out of those 20 years every single national champion has been in the top-40 in adjusted offense and the top-25 in Adjusted Defense. So who does that rule out?
Gonzaga (#1 in Adjusted Offense, #75 in Adjusted Defense)
San Diego State (#70 in Adjusted Offense, #5 in Adjusted Defense)
Xavier (#7 in Adjusted Offense, #63 in Adjusted Defense)
Arkansas (#51 in Adjusted Offense, #15 in Adjusted Defense)
Kansas State (#47 in Adjusted Offense, #17 in Adjusted Defense)
Florida Atlantic (#30 in Adjusted Offense, #35 in Adjusted Defense)
Michigan State (#38 in Adjusted Offense, #31 in Adjusted Defense)
Miami (#11 in Adjusted Offense, #108 in Adjusted Defense)
Cinderellaton (#100 in Adjusted Offense, #96 in Adjusted Defense)
That's nine teams I'm not even considering. Nobody likes a numbers guy, but sometimes the data is just too strong to ignore. We are left with Alabama, Creighton, Houston, Texas, UCLA, UConn, and Tennessee to take us home.
To keep this at a respectable length, here are the teams I will be putting some money on to take it home. Lets keep this #fun and please do not bet a lot of money on these. I like the plays, but they are definitely long shots.
Creighton (+950 odds):
Top Players During the Regular Season: Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.7 PPG, 6 RPG), Trey Alexander (13.6 PPG, 2,6 APG, and 4 RPG), Baylor Scheierman (12.5 PPG, 8 RPG), and Ryan Nembhard (12.4 PPG, 4 RPG, and 5 APG)
How those guys are doing in March: Ryan Kalkbrenner (20.5 PPG, 7 RPG), Trey Alexander (13 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 5 RPG), Baylor Scheierman (9 PPG, 6 RPG) and Ryan Nembhard (20 PPG, 2.5 APG, and 2.5 RPG)
Bingo. Alongside Greg McDermott and the play of their top guys, Creighton might be worth a little Salt Bae Sprinkle. Stay Tuned.
UConn (+850 odds)
Top Players During the Regular Season: Adam Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Jordan Hawkins (15.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG), and Tristen Newton (10 PPG, 4 RPG, and 4.7 APG)
How those guys are doing in March: Adam Sanogo (26 PPG, 10.5 RPG), Jordan Hawkins (12.5 PPG, 2 RPG), and Tristen Newton (8.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 5.5 APG)
Adam Sanogo hasn’t been and won't be stopped in this tournament. I love the value here and I think the fire behind Dan Hurley could lead this team to win the national championship.
Houston (+410 odds)
In the first two games of the tournament this squad has gotten high-level production from every single one of their starters and everyone has been doing their part on the defensive end as well.
Marcus Sasser has proved to recover well from his groin injury he suffered two weeks ago vs. Memphis in the AAC tournament finals against Memphis. He sat out the second half in their 1st round matchup against Northern Kentucky, but played 31 minutes and scored 22 points against Auburn on Saturday. Great news for Cougar fans, and great news for this bet.
Kelvin Sampson will have this team ready to fire on all cylinders these next few games, and if they can win their region the Final Four is in Houston and the stars would start to align for them.
Quick Math:
Creighton- $25 to win $237.50
UConn- $25 to win $212.50
Houston- $25 to win $102.50
So, clearly the value is with Creighton and UConn here but I will be including Houston in the mix as well. Ride with me and lets have some #fun here.
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