X (Twitter): @TreyKelleher3 (https://twitter.com/treykelleher3)
The second edition of my Sweet 16 Crystal Ball bet has arrived. Last year, it went exactly as planned. I narrowed it down to three teams that met the below criteria:
Are getting high-level production from their top/most experienced players
Have veteran guards that make their free throws at a high percentage
Have matchups leading up to the national championship that rule in their favor
Have to be in the top 40 in adjusted offense and the top 25 in adjusted defense.
Last year (https://www.treykelleher3.com/post/sweet-16-crystal-ball) I narrowed it down to Houston (+410), Creighton (+950), and UConn (+850). I put a single unit ($50) on all three teams and let the March Madness Gods take care of the rest. As we all know, UConn cut down the nets when it was all said and done and I walked away with a profit. Let's do that again.
Number 4 from the above list is the most important bullet point because the KenPom website has been running for 25 years, and in those 25 years, every single national champion has been in the top 40 in adjusted offense and the top 25 in adjusted defense. So, who does that rule out?
Iowa State (#49 in adjusted offense)
Illinois (#92 in adjusted defense)
Gonzaga (#41 in adjusted defense)
Alabama (#101 in adjusted defense)
San Diego State (#53 in adjusted defense)
Clemson (#38 in adjusted defense)
NC State (#42 in adjusted offense and #75 in adjusted defense
That's seven teams I'm not even considering here which leaves us with the nine teams that remain eligible.
UConn (+220)
Houston (+550)
Purdue (+550)
Arizona (+850)
Tennessee (+1100)
North Carolina (+1300)
Marquette (+1600)
Duke (+2300)
Creighton (+2300)
To keep this at a respectable length, here are the teams I am putting one unit on to take it home. Let's keep this #fun so please do not bet a lot of money on these. I like the plays, but they are long shots.
Purdue (+550)
Matt Painter is coaching to prove the doubters wrong and is writing a redemption story for the Boilermakers after last year's loss to Farleigh Dickinson in the first round.
Purdue's mistake last year was relying far too much on Zach Edey. They didn't have enough guard play to make it far in the tournament. A first-round exit was a shocker, to say the least, but in my mind, they weren't getting very far either way.
This year is very different. Zach Edey is still one of the best, if not the best, player(s) in the nation, but Braden Smith, Lance Jones, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis, and Trey Kaufman-Renn are legitimate threats as well.
If Purdue can continue to knock down threes, continue to get to the charity stripe, and Zach Edey keeps being...well, Zach Edey, I like their chances of getting to Phoenix.
Arizona (+850)
Tommy Lloyd is in his third season as Arizona's head coach and has earned no worse than a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament. He already has two Sweet 16s to his name, and I believe he can add more accolades to his bio with this group.
Through two games in the NCAA Tournament, Arizona has had at least four different scorers in double figures in each game. Caleb Love, Pelle Larsson, Oumar Ballo, and Keshad Johsnon are their main scorers, but the Wildcats have seven guys who have no problem stepping up. They have 21 threes in two games and have gotten to the line 37 times.
They have the leaders, the guard play, and the coaching, so the Wildcats could be cutting down the nets this year.
Marquette (+1600)
This is the 11th time Shaka Smart has led his team to the NCAA Tournament, but only the second time his team has made it out of the Round of 32. Coach Smart knows what it takes to make the Final Four; I believe this is the year he will return.
Tyler Kolek is back to full health after dealing with an Oblique injury for six games. The Big East Player of The Year is averaging just under 20 points in the tournament and has 11 assists in both games. He is seemingly unguardable and is the type of point guard who makes everyone around him better by sharing the basketball.
Kam Jones, Oso Ighodaro, David Joplin, and Stevie Mitchell will play a big part in the Golden Eagles' success from here on out. If they can contribute at a high level alongside Kolek, there aren't many teams that will be able to come out on top over them.
Quick Math:
Purdue (+550) $50 to win $275
Arizona (+850) $50 to win $425
Marquette (+1600) $50 to win $800
There is no UConn here for me. Why? because they are currently +220 on my sportsbook and that value is no fun whatsoever. Ride with me!
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